Temporal Graph Learning of Wearable Actigraphy and Sleep Traces for Modelling Adolescent Crystallized Intelligence

Abstract

Wearable actigraphy offers a scalable, ecologically valid alternative to episodic clinical assessment. However, predicting continuous adolescent crystallized intelligence ($G_c$) from such traces remains challenging due to irregular device adherence and complex behavioral-environmental interactions. We address this using daily summary data derived from 21-day Fitbit records of 6,091 adolescents in the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study (Release 5.1). We propose SATURN, a Sleep-Activity Temporal Unified Regression Network. It represents participants as 21-node temporal graphs encoding daily behaviors and temporal adjacency. To prevent imputation artifacts, invalid-day edges are dynamically pruned during forward passes. Node embeddings are refined via residual GATv2 layers, aggregated through masked attention pooling, and fused with sociodemographic covariates. Under family-controlled, age-sex-BMI-stratified cross-validation, SATURN achieves $R^2=0.2783\pm 0.0127$, consistently improving upon flattened machine learning (Gradient Boosting, $R^2=0.2372$) and sequential deep learning (BiLSTM, $R^2=0.2688$) baselines. Explainability analyses identify light activity, metabolic equivalents, and sleep duration as dominant predictors, while Monte Carlo dropout and subgroup analyses confirm equitable performance across sociodemographic strata. Ultimately, SATURN establishes a rigorous computational framework for digital cognitive phenotyping, offering a scalable pathway to complement traditional assessments by highlighting macro-level behavioral anomalies.

11 pages, 3 figures. This work has been submitted to the IEEE Transactions on Computational Social Systems for possible publication