Local Optimality and Rigidity of Frobenius Tests for Dense High-Dimensional Covariance Alternatives

Abstract

We study identity testing for high-dimensional covariance matrices against dense alternatives of unknown direction, with $p/n\to \gamma$. Along a globally positive quadratic precision path, mixing Gaussian alternatives over a Gaussian Orthogonal Ensemble direction yields a contiguous experiment whose log likelihood reduces to the corrected Frobenius statistic; its upper-tail test attains the limiting weighted-power envelope at every fixed strength. Fixing the prior's Frobenius radius perturbs the mixture by only $O(p^{-1/2})$ in total variation, and exact whitening carries the experiment, the statistic, and its null law to any known null covariance. Separately, under a product-coordinate null, feasibility needs only $4+\eta$ moments, plus identical distributions over time when means are estimated; studentization and an exact degrees-of-freedom correction preserve the local power. A stability inequality turns near-envelope attainment into null agreement with the Frobenius rule, so uniform noninferiority on the typical dense bulk precludes gains at any contiguous alternative. For trace-matched rank-one alternatives, the corrected statistic is the first likelihood direction when ${\vartheta }_n\to 0$ and $n{\vartheta }_n\to \infty$; at fixed strength, the log likelihood ratio in the Onatski-Moreira-Hallin fixed-spike benchmark is governed by a richer linear spectral statistic below the Baik-Ben Arous-Peche threshold, while eigenvalue separation permits cost-free largest-eigenvalue enhancement above it. Simulations illustrate the theory.

74 pages (25-page main text plus supplementary material), 1 figure