Quasi-Gaussian Missing Higher Order Uncertainties

Abstract

We review Bayesian models for estimating the uncertainty induced by missing higher orders in perturbative predictions. These models return probability distributions, which have peculiar shapes typically very different from the Gaussian distribution often assumed in physics analysis. In this work, we are able to obtain smooth probability distributions with quasi-Gaussians shapes by suitably modifying the likelihood and the priors of the models.

5 pages, 1 figure. Proceedings of DIS 2026