Feasibility of the Phobos 1 Hypothesis for Dark Comet 1998 KY${}_{26}$

Abstract

The asteroid 1998 KY${}_{26}$ has been the subject of thorough observation, both optical and radar, from shortly following its discovery on 28 May 1998, through 2 further close apparitions in 2020 and 2024. This has previously allowed an accurate characterization of the object, including an unusually rapid spin-rate with period 5.3516 $\pm$ 0.0001 minutes, a diameter of 11 $\pm$ 2 m, and a high albedo of $\sim 0.52$. Furthermore, the presence of significant nongravitational accelerations (NGAs), with no detectable shedding of gas or dust, has stimulated the 'dark comet' categorization, with JAXA repurposing their Hayabusa2$♯$ spacecraft to rendezvous with the object in 2031. We follow-up the astrodynamical evidence pointing to the possibility this may actually be the lost Soviet Phobos 1 probe, and analyse various photometry and astrometry associated with 1998 KY${}_{26}$ to further investigate the feasibility of this hypothesis. We find a first order approximation of the Phobos 1 spacecraft provides compelling agreement to 8 light curves of the object and further that modelling NGAs as solar radiation pressure (SRP) on a cylinder or solar panels provide significant reductions in residual of $\sim 11\%$ with respect to the 260 astrometric and radar measurements. Although an investigation of this kind cannot be conclusive, nevertheless the results here add strong weight to the Phobos 1 hypothesis, and we find no clear contradictory evidence. The spin pole in Ecliptic J2000 coordinates, calculated from photometry based on the Phobos 1 assumption is $(\lambda ,\beta )=({151_{-2}^{+1}}^{\circ },{+11_{-3}^{+12}}^{\circ })$ , where the quoted ranges represent approximate 68.3\% confidence levels.