Exploring the role of input data on hail nowcast skill using spatiotemporal neural networks

Abstract

Hail can cause large financial losses and poses risks to public safety, making reliable nowcasts essential for timely warnings. Deep-learning approaches have emerged as a strong alternative to conventional methods, but how input data choices affect performance has not been deeply explored. We investigate how the skill of a deep-learning hail nowcasting model can be improved without changing the model architecture. Sensitivity experiments assess the impact of training-data volume, random data augmentation (mirroring and rotation) and the number of input timesteps. Increasing the years of training data substantially improves forecast skill, by up to 25 minutes at later lead times. Augmentation improved performance for larger datasets but interestingly degraded performance for smaller ones. Sensitivity to input timesteps was weaker than sensitivity to training years. These findings show that improvements in data selection and preprocessing can yield substantial gains even with a fixed architecture, offering guidance for future deep-learning nowcasting development.

Under review for publication in Geophysical Research Letters