Redefining Stablecoins from Nominal to Real Value: A Maximum Likelihood Approach

Abstract

Stablecoins, typically pegged to fiat currencies, cannot achieve true stability because they inherit fluctuations in the underlying unit of account. To overcome this limitation, we introduce a stablecoin pegged to the Maximum Likelihood Value (MLV), a newly defined unit of account derived as the most probable configuration of latent real-value movements that explains observed nominal-value (price) changes. Grounded in inferential statistics and modern portfolio theory, MLV represents the most stable unit of account, as it enforces a zero real return on the minimum-variance portfolio. Empirical results confirm the operational viability of an MLV-pegged stablecoin: MLV can be computed in real time from 500 asset price series and improves annualized returns and Sharpe ratios while substantially reducing turnover in portfolio optimization.