A Co-Simulation Platform Coupling Land Use, Transportation, and Building Energy: Development and Case Study

Abstract

Land use, transportation, and building energy shape one another, yet urban-scale studies typically model each sector in isolation. We present a co-simulation platform that couples the UrbanSim land-use model, the POLARIS agent-based transportation model, and the CityBES urban building energy model into a single integrated workflow, with POLARIS travel skims driving land use and POLARIS agent activities driving dynamic building occupancy. We demonstrate the platform with forecasts through 2045 for the Chicago metropolitan area under a business-as-usual case, a high-telecommuting scenario, and a mileage-based user fee scenario. Both policies produced expected-direction responses that emerged from the model feedbacks rather than being imposed. Telecommuting decentralized activity toward outlying areas and cut 2045 vehicle miles traveled by 12.5%, whereas the mileage fee recentralized activity toward the urban core and cut it by 2.9%. Comparing coupled runs against uncoupled runs that hold land use fixed shows that the land-use feedback contributes over one percentage point to the county-level travel effect in several counties, large relative to the policy effect itself since the mileage fee's county-level effects are only about three percent, so a transportation-only study would materially misstate the sub-regional impact. Both policies raised citywide building energy by about 1%. This is the first platform to integrate land use, transportation, and building energy simultaneously, replacing predefined occupancy schedules and static building stocks with endogenous agent-based occupancy and a forecast-driven building stock. It lets planners evaluate transportation and pricing policies for their joint land use, travel, and energy consequences, and its component models rely on nationally available data, making the approach transferable given local building-stock and calibration data.