Korean Space Collision Environment Assessment Framework Based on 3D-Cell Model

Abstract

Space situational awareness (SSA) requires purpose-matched models across spatial, temporal, and fidelity scales. Building on our previously reported three-dimensional (3D) cell formulation and implementation, this study establishes a reproducible, resolution-aware, catalog-conditioned framework for macroscopic assessment of the low Earth orbit (LEO) collision environment. The framework maps supplied catalog or scenario populations to time-averaged spatial density and target-specific impact metrics while retaining individual-object information. Using a 2025 Space-Track snapshot, we evaluate radial, declination, and right-ascension resolution sensitivity and computational performance for six targets, including two Korean space assets. Normalized expected impact counts range from 0.615 to 1.599 and vary nonmonotonically; for a synthetic 500-km circular target, the result at a 0.25-km radial width is 38.5\% below the 10-km reference. Runtime and memory show direction-dependent trade-offs. Ten annual snapshots show catalog growth from 15,723 objects in 2016 to 28,540 in 2025 and a 7.86-fold increase in the 500-km target metric, driven primarily by Starlink, other payloads, and unknown/TBA records. In a conditional stress test of the proposed 998,240-satellite SpaceX Orbital Data Center population, exact annual probabilities of at least one impact reach $3.75\times 10^{-3}$ and $1.48\times 10^{-3}$ for the 700-km and 1,000-km targets. The framework provides a reproducible, resolution-aware basis for catalog-conditioned environment monitoring, comparative scenario assessment, and prioritization of cases for higher-fidelity follow-up analysis.

38 pages