Identifying Probability Localization Dynamics via Structured Stochastic Liftings

Abstract

This work develops a discrete-time framework for identifying probability localization dynamics through finite stochastic representations adapted in space, time, memory, and state information. A compact dynamically relevant set is localized by a finite measurable partition, producing an observable probability state and a relational graph of admissible transitions. Structured stochastic liftings derived from Stochastically Structured Reservoir Computing (SSRC) give lossless polynomial representations of the observable state, while stochastic delay liftings add finite observable memory. These are distinguished from dynamically informed state-space enrichment: refinement of observational fibers containing states with the same present observation but different observable futures, yielding an exact obstruction-to-closure criterion. A route-network toy problem gives a minimal obstruction example, while four numerical laboratories (rotational phase dynamics, the chaotic logistic map, the Van der Pol oscillator, and a synthetic cyclic inventory system) show how spatial scale, temporal scale, polynomial degree, and delay depth interact. The logistic map isolates representation-induced memory in an otherwise Markovian chaotic system, using its exact invariant law as an ergodic benchmark and its zero-mass pseudospectrum to separate relaxation from transient amplification. An exact rotational cycle calibrates pseudospectra as a robustness diagnostic rather than a closure certificate. The inventory example gives a closure-driven enrichment procedure: residence-age hazards trigger age-refined states that improve predictive scores. These results motivate a minimal adequate representation: the least complex representation meeting predictive, structural, and identifiability requirements.