From Individual-Based Stochastic Epidemics to Heterogeneous SIR Equations

Abstract

We develop a stochastic framework for a broad class of heterogeneous SIR epidemic models. In the finite-population construction, each initially susceptible individual is assigned a fixed nonnegative susceptibility, and infection occurs when the accumulated population-level infection pressure exceeds an individual random threshold. Infectious periods are independent and exponentially distributed with a common recovery rate. For any susceptibility distribution with finite mean, we prove a uniform-on-compact law of large numbers for the susceptible, infectious, removed, and cumulative infection-pressure processes. In the limit, an individual with susceptibility lambda remains susceptible under cumulative pressure x with probability exp(-x lambda). It follows that the susceptible fraction is given by the Laplace transform of the initial susceptibility distribution, while the incidence rate is governed by the mean susceptibility among those who remain susceptible. The resulting limits recover several familiar heterogeneous SIR systems, including the classical power-law model, and also yield other closed nonlinear incidence forms. The framework therefore provides a unified probabilistic foundation for deterministic epidemic models with persistent individual heterogeneity.

27 pages, 1 figure