Simple data fusion from several ocean and atmosphere hindcast models improves surface drifter trajectory prediction

Abstract

Simulating the trajectory of surface drifters in the ocean matters for search and rescue, pollution tracking, oil and chemical spill response, and marine risk analysis. Accurate prediction remains difficult, as widely acknowledged in the literature, and also illustrated by the ``Forecasting Floats in Turbulence'' challenge issued by the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) in 2021, and which ultimately led to this paper. The main source of error usually comes from uncertain ocean currents, while errors in wind forcing and object drift properties are often smaller [Dagestad and Röhrs, 2019]. Here, we use an open one-year dataset of Sofar Spotter trajectories together with several ocean and atmospheric hindcast products to test data-driven drift models at scale. We compare three approaches: i) a standard (baseline) drifter trajectory simulation based on one ocean model and one atmospheric model, ii) linear regression (LR) models that fuse all available predictors, and iii) neural networks (NN) using similar inputs. A simple LR model that combines all predictors performs equally well as the NN. Because LR is simpler, cheaper, and more robust, we retain it as the preferred approach. In 2-day trajectory prediction, this improves the Liu-Weisberg skill score by around 40\% relative to the baseline. These findings apply to hindcast mode; applying this methodology for forecast mode remains for future work.