CtaAgnVar : a Pipeline for Variability Studies with the Cherenkov Telescope Array Observatory

Abstract

Blazars are active galactic nuclei whose relativistic jet points toward the observer, accelerating particles that radiate across the electromagnetic spectrum. Characterizing their flux and spectral variability constrains the physics of the central black hole and its jet, making blazars a key science case for the Cherenkov Telescope Array Observatory (CTAO). The CTAO, with two sites and a sensitivity five to ten times better than current Imaging Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescopes, should reconstruct AGN variability at very high energies with unprecedented precision. To quantify these capabilities for blazars and transients, we developed CtaAgnVar, a pipeline based on Gammapy, the open-source Python package for gamma-ray analysis selected as core library of the CTAO Science Analysis Tools. It covers the full chain from a time-dependent spectral energy distribution to the simulation of a realistic observation sequence, accounting for source visibility, and to the reconstruction of spectra and light curves. It provides variability estimators, including a new statistical estimator quantifying the detection of hysteresis patterns in hardness-ratio diagrams. Released as open source, it lets the instrument enter only through the response functions and array location, so its use is not restricted to the CTAO. We simulated over 15 years of CTAO observations of PG 1553+113, whose high-energy emission shows a periodicity in Fermi-LAT data. Assuming the very-high-energy emission follows the high-energy one, the CTAO would recover this periodicity above 5 sigma with 15 years of 30 min observations on a weekly cadence, the period determination being then limited by the light-curve sampling rather than by photon statistics.