The DIRECD coronal mass ejection direction catalog: three-dimensional propagation inferred from coronal dimmings

Abstract

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are among the primary drivers of space weather disturbances at Earth, yet their early propagation in the low corona remains poorly constrained owing to occultation and projection effects inherent to coronagraph observations. Coronal dimmings offer an alternative diagnostic to infer CME propagation direction directly from the low corona. We present the DIRECD CME Direction Catalog, a unified dataset of three-dimensional CME propagation directions derived via the DIRECD (Dimming Inferred Estimation of CME Direction) method, which reconstructs CME cone geometry from SDO/AIA 211 Å coronal dimming observations. The catalog comprises 64 events spanning 2010-2026, combining 31 Solar Cycle 25 (2021-2026) events with 33 events from prior studies. For each event we report the 3D propagation direction, 2D inclination angles, angular width, and cone height. Statistical analysis reveals a systematic asymmetry in low-coronal CME propagation: meridional inclinations exhibit a systematic tendency toward latitude-dependent deflection, with poleward deflections more pronounced at higher source latitudes, while equatorial inclinations show no significant dependence on source longitude. This is consistent with low-coronal CME trajectories being governed primarily by local active-region magnetic topology, with the large-scale coronal field and heliospheric current sheet assuming a progressively dominant role at greater heliocentric distances. Incorporating DIRECD-derived propagation directions into CME arrival forecasts improves predictions of geomagnetic storm intensity, raising the correlation with observed storm strength from r = 0.58 to r = 0.70 when combined with CME speed. The DIRECD software, catalog, and all associated data products are publicly available to support space weather research.

21 pages, 8 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal Supplement (ApJS)