A cube-root phase transition in tree-child networks and the enumeration threshold for galled networks

Abstract

We prove two surprising results about phylogenetic networks. First, we show that the structure of tree-child networks with $n$ leaves and $k$ reticulation nodes undergoes a sharp phase transition at $n^{1/3}$: if $k=o(n^{1/3})$, then a random tree-child network is almost surely a semi-simplex tree-child network, whereas if $k/n^{1/3}\to \infty$ and $k=o(n^{1/2})$, it is almost surely not. Second, we show that this result implies that the asymptotic counting formula for galled networks with $n$ leaves and a fixed number $k$ of reticulation nodes remains valid in the range $k=o(n^{1/3})$, but not beyond. This is in strong contrast to recently established results for the asymptotic counting formulas for tree-child and normal networks with $n$ leaves and $k$ reticulation nodes, which are valid in the (optimal) range $k=o(n^{1/2})$.

16 pages, submitted