Estimating the growth in emissions from AI data centres
arXiv:2608.14421
Abstract
The advent of agentic AI is driving an unprecedented growth in data centre expansion. Using state-of-the-art life cycle assessment models for operational and embodied emissions from AI servers, we estimate the ensuing growth in overall CO2 emissions of AI data centres. The main contribution of this work is a rigorous quantification of emissions arising from projected AI data centre expansion using scenarios by the IEA and McKinsey. We show that the scenarios promoted by the AI industry would result in a dramatic rise in overall emissions and that the embodied carbon component is considerable.
5 pages, 2 figures. Accepted at the 2nd International Workshop on Low Carbon Computing (LOCO 2026), Lancaster University, United Kingdom, 10-11 September 2026. Part of the LOCO 2026 proceedings, arXiv:LOCO2026/P05