Effective catchment hydrologic representations are low-dimensional but interaction-dependent

Abstract

Hydrologic models must reconcile predictive flexibility with physical interpretability, yet the complexity required to reproduce catchment dynamics remains uncertain. Here we compare conceptual hydrologic models and neural networks built from mass-conserving computational units across 513 catchments in the contiguous United States, varying state dimensionality and cross-state information sharing. Under likelihood-based selection, median testing-period Kling-Gupta efficiency skill score (KGEss) increases from 0.83 with one allowable state to 0.89 with two, but reaches only 0.90 with five. KGE-based selection shows similarly rapid saturation. Cross-state information sharing provides an additional source of predictive skill: sharing-enabled candidate spaces restricted to two states outperform non-sharing spaces allowing up to five states, with lower median errors in five of six hydrologic diagnostics. Although likelihood- and KGE-based criteria favor different architectures, both preserve the same structural relationships. Conceptual and neural formulations likewise select different specific architectures but retain the same state dimensionality in 75% of catchments. These findings indicate that effective hydrologic representations are low-dimensional but interaction-dependent, while predictive success alone does not uniquely identify physical storage structures.

arXiv comment98 pages; Main text: 5 figures; Extended Data: 5 figures, 3 tables; Supplementary Materials: 4 notes, 4 figures, 50 tables. Substantially revised and condensed version with updated title, abstract, and presentation