From S2 to LISA: Astrometric Bounds on Extreme-Mass-Ratio Inspirals and Bursts

Abstract

Stellar orbits around the massive black hole at the center of our galaxy provide a unique local probe of the compact-object population in the Galactic Centre and, consequently, of the sources of millihertz gravitational waves: periapse passages lead to extreme-mass-ratio bursts (EMRBs) while successful captures lead to extreme-mass ration inspirals (EMRIs). In this paper we use recent astrometric limits from the GRAVITY observatory on perturbations of the orbit of the star S2 to place upper limits on the normalisation of a stellar-mass black-hole cusp within $\sim 0.02\mathrm{pc}$. For a benchmark $10M_{\odot }$ Bahcall--Wolf population anchored to this data, we obtain upper limits of $\sim 2.4\times 10^2{\mathrm{Gyr}}^{-1}$ on the EMRI rate and $\sim 0.2{\mathrm{yr}}^{-1}$ on the detectable EMRB rate in the Milky Way, which fall within the broad range of previous theoretical estimates. Assuming a self-similar scaling of the cusp normalisation with central black-hole mass, we extend this calibration to cosmological populations. The resulting EMRI background is detectable by LISA across all scenarios considered, whereas the flatter EMRB background can reach LISA sensitivity when mass segregation is efficient in low-mass galactic nuclei. Our results highlight the complementarity of precision stellar astrometry and millihertz gravitational-wave observations.

22 pages, 10 figures; Claude Code-generated repository reproducing all results at https://github.com/andrea0292/s2-to-lisa

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