Poroelastic aquifer response drives seasonal vertical land motion in southern Louisiana

Abstract

Coastal Louisiana is sinking, amplifying flooding and land loss, yet the seasonal component of this motion remains difficult to attribute. Satellite geodetic records from Baton Rouge spanning 2004-2024 reveal long-term subsidence of -2.69 +/- 0.69 mm/yr, with a superimposed annual oscillation of 10-15 mm that is in phase with river stage and confined-aquifer hydraulic head. This positive correlation is diagnostic of poroelastic deformation rather than surface loading. A poroelastic model of a semi-confined aquifer driven by hydraulic-head variations reproduces both the long-term and seasonal signals. The seasonal amplitude decreases logarithmically with distance from the intersection of the Baton Rouge Fault and the Mississippi River, as expected for radial pressure diffusion from a flux source. Fault-river intersections therefore act as seasonal conduits into deep aquifers, representing an underappreciated control on coastal land motion that is likely to strengthen as hydrological extremes intensify.