From biodiversity modelling to conservation action: a spatial indicator for prioritising tropical forest protection, restoration, and management

Abstract

Tropical forests harbour exceptional biodiversity but are increasingly threatened by anthropogenic pressures, making their conservation central to achieving the Convention on Biological Diversity targets. However, national conservation planning is often constrained by heterogeneous monitoring frameworks and limited integration of biodiversity and anthropogenic pressures. We develop a synthetic spatial indicator that combines open-access biodiversity and land-use data to identify refuge and conflict areas between ecological potential and anthropogenic pressure. Using Costa Rica as a national-scale demonstrator, we assess its capacity to support conservation prioritisation and evaluate the current conservation network. Ecological potential was estimated using multi-species distribution models for 254 dominant canopy tree species, serving as an operational proxy for tropical forest biodiversity and ecological structure. We quantified anthropogenic pressure from land-use patterns and combined it with ecological potential to identify refuge and conflict areas. We then tested the spatial significance of these areas and evaluated their representation within the national conservation network. The indicator reveals a clear spatial organisation of biodiversity-pressure interactions: refuge areas coincide with large, continuous forest cores, whereas conflict areas are concentrated in fragmented landscapes and may extend into protected areas. Flexible and transferable, the framework distinguishes areas requiring strict protection from those where restoration, sustainable management, or pressure mitigation should be prioritised. Rather than prescribing conservation actions, the refuge-conflict indicator provides a practical decision-support tool to assess conservation networks, strengthen ecological connectivity, and guide national biodiversity planning.

35 pages, 7 figures + Appendix