Local structure at the maximum and sharp persistence asymptotics of rough fractional Brownian motion

Abstract

We consider a fractional Brownian motion $B$ with Hurst index $0<H<1/2$, and its maximiser $\tau$ on $[0,1]$. We show that the rescaled process $a^H(B_{\tau +\cdot /a}-B_{\tau })$ converges in $C_{\mathrm{loc}}(\mathbb{R})$ to a limiting tangent law that is $H$-self-similar, supported on nonpositive paths pinned at zero, and rerooting-rescaling invariant: rerooting the limit process at its maximum on any fixed compact interval separated from zero and rescaling again asymptotically reproduces the same law. We also identify the tangent law as the limit of two-sided finite-grid hard-wall laws as the mesh vanishes and both horizons diverge, which can informally be interpreted as conditioning fractional Brownian motion on a nonpositive path. As an application, we consider persistence probabilities for fractional Brownian motion: a tilted variant of $B$ yields a different tangent law with a finite left horizon and an infinite right horizon and we show that \[ \mathbb P(B_t\leq1\text{ for all }0\leq t\leq T) = \big(C+o(1)\big)\,T^{-(1-H)},\quad \text{as }T\to\infty, \] where the leading order coefficient $C\in (0,\infty )$ has an explicit representation in terms of the expected maximum and the tilted tangent law.

66 pages, main results unchanged, proofs clarified and textual overlap with forthcoming companion paper removed