Influence of local and global solar magnetic fields on medium-term forecasting of the number and parameters of coronal mass ejections

Abstract

It has been shown that both the frequency and parameters of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) increased as solar cycles 23-25 approached their maxima and decreased toward their minima. However, significant differences were identified in the cyclic evolution of strong versus weak CMEs. Unlike weak CMEs, powerful, high-speed CMEs, characterized by large angular widths and substantial mass and energy, follow the cyclic evolution of active regions. During periods when the sector structure of the global magnetic field (GMF) dominates, the latitudinal distribution of CMEs becomes more uniform, and their frequency and parameter values increase, particularly during the declining phase of solar activity. A method based on combining GMF parameter data and Wolf numbers has been proposed for the medium-term forecasting of the frequency and parameters of strong and weak CMEs in cycle 26. A comparison of predicted and observed CME parameters for cycle 25 shows good agreement.

arXiv comment16 pages, 5 figures