Subjective Risk Decomposition: A New View for Uncertainty Quantification
arXiv:2607.15196
The paper introduces a framework that derives epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty measures by decomposing a subjective risk defined via a strictly proper loss, unifying many existing UQ metrics and extending the approach to learning‑theoretic concepts such as excess risk.
Abstract
We present a novel viewpoint for uncertainty quantification. Uncertainty measures are not primitives, in need of axioms and argumentation, but instead consequences, of higher-level modelling decisions. We show how epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty measures can be derived via decomposition of a subjective risk, based on a strictly proper loss. Reverse cross entropy provides a prominent example, where decomposition recovers the classic information-theoretic uncertainty terms. The same approach recovers numerous measures previously proposed across the UQ literature, providing them a common theoretical foundation. This suggests a new approach to UQ: given a modelling scenario and strictly proper loss, the corresponding epistemic and aleatoric terms are induced by the subjective-risk decomposition. We then extend our view to learning theory: we introduce and analyse subjective risk analogues of excess risk, approximation error and estimation error, and identify the connections to UQ. We consider this a first step towards a full learning-theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification.
36 pages (including bibliography/appendix)