Detector Confidence Signals Presence Rather Than Occlusion in Cluttered Manipulation

Abstract

Detector confidence is often used to decide whether a robot needs another view of a target. We test this signal against detector-free visibility from geometry segmentation. In controlled clutter, Grounding DINO confidence remains nearly constant as target visibility falls from all scenes to one in eight. OWLv2 and SAM 3 retain positive correlations with visibility, but all three detectors lose target-instance localization under heavy occlusion. Grounding DINO reports a hidden target present in about nine of ten scenes by detecting same-category distractors. Consequently, confidence understates the benefit of additional views ($8$ versus $88$ percentage points). In a $40$-scene localization comparison, additional-view selection and fusion increase target localizability from $5\%$ to $100\%$. Experiments cover nine categories, two simulators, and real video. On DAVIS, confidence correlates positively with visible area, yet $99\%$ of occluded frames yield a detection and $94\%$ of those detections miss the tracked target. These results distinguish category presence from target visibility and motivate target-grounded evaluation of active perception.

arXiv commentAccepted to IEEE MSN 2026. 8 pages