Higher-order Spillover Effects Under Partial Interference
arXiv:2607.12855
The paper develops causal estimands and new Horvitz‑Thompson and Hajek estimators for spillover effects in networks under a generalized interference assumption that allows influence from units beyond immediate neighbors, and evaluates them via simulations and a real trial.
Abstract
Interference, under which a unit's outcome is affected by the treatment of other units through network connections, is often present when units interact on a network. When the network of interactions is measured, researchers are often interested in the spillover effect from first-order neighbors. When this is the case, the prevailing approach often involves the neighborhood interference assumption, which is oftentimes overly restrictive. In this paper, we instead rely on a generalized interference assumption, which allows one's potential outcomes to be influenced by the treatment of units from a wider area of the network, referred to as the "interference set". For instance, this can be a community detected through a community detection algorithm, or the set of units that can be reached through a finite network path. Under this assumption, we define new causal estimands to quantify spillover effects from first-order neighbors and, in general, from units at a specific network distance h. We employ two hypothetical Bernoulli distributions with different probabilities for the h-order neighborhood and for the rest of the units in the interference set. We first derive the bias of an approach that relies on a wrong interference set or incorrect exposure mapping function. We then develop new Horvitz-Thompson and Hajek estimators and corresponding weighted regression estimators under the generalized interference assumption. We conduct a series of simulations to assess the bias of OLS estimators -- which rely on restrictive interference assumptions and an exposure mapping function -- , and the performance of our estimators in different interference scenarios and random graphs. We then apply our estimators to a two-stage randomized trial implemented in Honduras to assess a maternal and child health intervention.