Climate-Invariant Conformal Prediction Intervals for Multi-Horizon Solar and Wind Forecasting
arXiv:2607.11470
The paper introduces a climate‑invariant split‑conformal prediction interval method that uses a bootstrap‑diverse XGBoost ensemble to provide reliable, heteroscedastic and asymmetric uncertainty bounds for multi‑hour solar irradiance and wind speed forecasts without site‑specific tuning.
Abstract
Reliable uncertainty quantification is essential for integrating solar and wind generation into modern power systems, where operators must weigh risk rather than act on point forecasts alone. Existing probabilistic methods, however, often either lack finite-sample validity or require per-site recalibration, so a single model rarely transfers across the diverse climates of a dispersed generation fleet. This paper proposes a heteroscedastic, asymmetric, group-conditional split-conformal framework built on a bootstrap-diverse XGBoost ensemble, producing prediction intervals that adapt in width to local difficulty while retaining distribution-free coverage guarantees. A single fixed specification, with no per-site or per-horizon tuning, is evaluated across four climatologically distinct sites spanning both hemispheres, at horizons of 1 to 12 hours, for both solar irradiance and wind speed. The framework holds near-nominal coverage on both targets and reduces the Interval Score by up to 35% relative to competitive baselines, with the calibration and sharpness of its intervals shown to be properties of the method rather than of site-specific tuning.
10 pages, 5 figures