Estimation of Linear Functionals in Multilayer Panels under Staggered Adoption

Abstract

We study the estimation of bilinear forms from noisy, partially observed multilayer data. The signal follows a Tucker2 model, with shared unit and time factors across tensor layers and slice-specific cores. The missingness pattern is structured and motivated by staggered adoption designs, which are common in causal inference and related applications. We first analyze the four-block missingness pattern, the basic building block for general staggered adoption, and propose a spectral algorithm that pools information across layers and targets the functional directly. We prove a non-asymptotic mean squared error bound that exhibits a phase transition in the number of layers, showing when pooling improves estimation, and match it with a local minimax lower bound up to constants when ranks and logarithmic factors are treated as constant-order quantities. We then extend the construction to general staggered adoption designs via an anchored four-block reduction, and derive analogous theoretical guarantees. Finally, we validate our theoretical findings using synthetic and real-world data on Castle Doctrine laws and COVID-19 policies

108 pages, 12 figures, 3 tables