Closed geodesics in homology classes on random hyperbolic surfaces of large genus

Abstract

We study the distribution of closed geodesics in homology classes on random hyperbolic surfaces of large genus. Viewing the surface as a random point in moduli space equipped with the Weil--Petersson probability measure, we investigate the fluctuations of the weighted counting function of closed geodesics in homology classes modulo $q$. We show that, in the large genus limit, the variance is asymptotic to $X\log X$ for every modulus $q>2$, with an exceptional factor of two when $q=2$. We relate our findings to a conjecture of Hooley, and to work of Friedlander and Goldston, on primes in arithmetic progressions. We also introduce a statistical model based on the random allocation of weighted balls which exhibits analogous behavior.

Revision, introduced a statistical model based on the random allocation of weighted balls