A new model for long-term forecasting of Galactic cosmic rays

Abstract

The modulation of galactic cosmic rays, driven by the evolution of the heliospheric magnetic field, strongly influences the intensity of cosmic rays reaching near-Earth space. Characterizing this process is crucial both for advancing our understanding of cosmic-ray transport and for assessing radiation exposure and related hazards in space environments. Here we present a newly developed forecasting framework built on a numerical description of charged particle transport in the heliosphere and its dependence on solar activity, designed for the long-term forecasting of galactic cosmic-ray fluxes. It solves a one-dimensional, spherically symmetric form of the Parker transport equation, including diffusion, solar-wind advection, and adiabatic energy losses. The model has been validated using multi-species flux measurements from space-based experiments: PAMELA, AMS-02, and ACE. Its strategy is based on Hilbert-Huang transform filtering and cross-correlation between delayed solar proxies and effective model parameters. Our charge-sign- and rigidity-dependent parametric description of the diffusion-advection processes yields good overall agreement with the data, as shown by the reconstruction uncertainty. The robustness of this approach is validated across a broad set of multichannel datasets covering different particle species, energy ranges, and phases of solar activity, supporting its applicability to space radiation monitoring and forecasting. Furthermore, when coupled with solar-proxy forecasting models, it enables decadal-scale predictions of galactic cosmic-ray fluxes, thereby supporting long-term planning and radiation-risk assessment for future space missions.

21 pages, 12 Figures