Strong counterexamples to Mubayi's supersaturation conjecture in every uniformity
arXiv:2606.26735
Abstract
The supersaturation problem asks, for a fixed -graph , for the minimum number of copies of in an -vertex -graph with $\ex(n,\mathcal F)+q$ edges. Mubayi conjectured a local form of supersaturation under a stability hypothesis: if is non--partite and stable, meaning roughly that the extremal -free construction is unique and all near-extremal -free -graphs are close to it, then this minimum should be at least , where is the minimum number of copies created by adding one edge to the extremal -free -graph. We disprove this conjectured local lower bound in every uniformity. For every and every , we construct a stable -graph such that, for all sufficiently large and every , there is an -vertex -graph with $\ex(n,\mathcal F)+q$ edges and at most copies of . Thus the conjectured lower bound can already fail at , and the failure can be by an arbitrarily large constant factor in every uniformity.
27pages