Divisibility Biases in the Orders of Elliptic Curve Reductions

Abstract

Let $E$ be an elliptic curve over the rationals. In 2004, Cojocaru proved, using the Chebotarev density theorem, that the set of primes $p\le x$ for which $m$ divides $\#E_p({\mathbb{F}}_p)$ has a natural density. In 2009, Banks and Shparlinski proved an averaged version of this result over families of elliptic curves. In this article, we give a more explicit analysis of these densities. In particular, we show that, for Serre curves, the density of primes $p$ for which $m\mid \#E_p({\mathbb{F}}_p)$ is approximately $1/\phi (m)$, and is always greater than $1/m$ for every $m\ge 2$. Thus, the orders $\#E_p({\mathbb{F}}_p)$ exhibit a bias toward divisibility by $m$. Finally, based on Jones' method, we prove that the average of the individual $m$-divisibility densities coincides with the average density proposed by Banks and Shparlinski.