Importance Sampling for Event Discovery via Guesswork

Abstract

Traditional importance sampling (IS) is designed to estimate rare-event probabilities by minimizing estimator variance. However, many applications prioritize rapid discovery: the generation of a trajectory within a rare set $A_n$. This requires a shift from ensemble-based estimation to a design principle focused on the hitting time $\ddot{I}{„}_{A_n}:=\inf \{t\ge 1:Y_t^n\in A_n\}$. We formalize a Quality of Discovery problem as the problem of minimizing the description length (surprisal) of the discovered trajectory under the nominal model $p$. We prove that minimizing this description length is equivalent to minimizing the nominal rank exponent $J_{\mathrm{rank}}(q_n):={\lim }_{n\to \infty }\frac{1}{n}\log G_n(Y^n)$, where $G_n(x^n)$ is the guesswork of sequence $x^n$. For i.i.d.\ models and type-defined rare sets $\hat{I}“$, we show that while classical IS targets the mass-dominating type $Q_{\mathrm{IS}}^{\ast }\in \arg {\min }_{Q\in \hat{I}“}D(Q\Vert p)$, discovery optimality is achieved by $Q_{\mathrm{GW}}^{\ast }\in \arg {\min }_{Q\in \hat{I}“}[H(Q)+D(Q\Vert p)]$. This framework identifies a fundamental rule: minimizing the guesswork exponent ensures the discovered sequence is the "least surprising" representative of the set relative to the nominal model's search order. We further demonstrate that under budgetary constraints, this exponent serves as a lexicographic tie-breaker when the hitting-time minimizer is not unique. This establishes $H(Q)+D(Q\Vert p)$ as a natural objective for discovery-based importance sampling, providing a formal bridge between randomized sampling and systematic search.

Short version submitted to ITW 2026