Bespoke-Card: Why Tune When You Can Generate? Synthesizing Workload-Specific Cardinality Estimators
arXiv:2606.09361
Bespoke-Card is an agent-driven system that automatically generates workload‑specific cardinality estimators as executable code, improving PostgreSQL query optimizer accuracy and runtime.
Abstract
Cardinality estimators are built to support arbitrary schemas and workloads, forcing them to rely on generic statistics even when the schema and workload is known in advance, leaving optimizers prone to large errors and poor plans. We present Bespoke-Card, an agent-driven system that synthesizes workload-specific cardinality estimators as executable code: a planning agent designs the estimators' strategies, a coding agent implements them, and a validator scores the estimates against true cardinalities and PostgreSQL estimates, forming a robust and deterministic harness. Going beyond naive prompting, Bespoke-Card uses structured q-error feedback, regression analysis, concrete outlier subplans, a curriculum isolating join-only, filter-only, and full-subplan errors, and archival selection of the best implementation. Injecting its estimates into the optimizer cuts total PostgreSQL runtime on JOB by 33% and reduces median q-error over all JOB subplans from 190.5 to 11.5 (-94%), while synthesizing a strong estimator in under one hour for less than $10. Bespoke-Card is opening a new avenue for cardinality estimation next to classical generic estimators and learned estimator architectures.
Accepted for AIDB@VLDB'26 (Boston)