Bayesian-Agent: Posterior-Guided Skill Evolution Across LLM Agent Harnesses

Abstract

LLM agents increasingly rely on prompts, tools, memory, SOPs, skills, and harness feedback, yet current self-evolution pipelines often update these assets through heuristic reflection or raw success counts. Such updates are brittle when trajectories are sparse, expensive, and context-dependent. We introduce Bayesian-Agent, a native and cross-harness framework that treats reusable agent skills as Bayesian evidence objects. Bayesian-Agent records verified trajectories, maintains posterior beliefs over skill reliability and failure modes, and turns those beliefs into auditable skill actions and model-facing guardrails. This posterior view provides a finite-sample alternative to raw empirical-rate skill updates and frames prompt, context, and harness engineering as inference over the external decision environment. On RealFin-Bench, Bayesian skill evolution matches or improves the raw empirical-rate control and yields large gains on native runs. In the incremental mode, incremental repair improves SOP-Bench from 80\% to 95\%, Lifelong AgentBench from 90\% to 100\%, and RealFin-Bench from 45\% to 65\%. Backend and model-scaling ablations further show that posterior-guided repair can operate across BA native, MiniSWEAgent, and Claude Code, provided the harness produces verifiable task artifacts. The source code is available at https://github.com/DataArcTech/Bayesian-Agent.

20 pages, 11 figures