paper

Exact asymptotics of the ruin probability in the Sparre Andersen model

arXiv:2605.30499 · doi:10.3390/math14142658

Abstract

For the Sparre Andersen non-life insurance model with investments in an arbitrary Lévy process, we establish the exact power-law asymptotics of the ruin probability as with a positive finite constant ; the exponent is the Cramér root of the Laplace exponent of the Lévy process describing the logarithm of the risky asset price. This strengthens previously known two-sided estimates of the order -- the existence of an exact limit had remained an open question. The proof combines a reduction to discrete time, the one-dimensional Kesten-Goldie theorem for the stationary measure of the associated affine recursion, and Goldie's result on the asymptotics of the supremum of a perpetuity.

14 pages, 1 figures

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