Leveraging Large Language Models to Improve Precision in Randomized Controlled Trials

Abstract

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in statistical research and applications. However, they are also notorious for unreliable or biased information. Here, we explore whether LLMs can be used to improve the precision of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in a safe and rigorous way. We consider two pathways for incorporating LLM assistance: (1) using LLMs to transform non-standard covariates, such as text, into numerical representations, and (2) leveraging the general knowledge embedded in LLMs to generate predicted outcomes. Although external data sources have been leveraged to improve precision before, the value added by LLM-generated predictions through these pathways remains an open question. We develop a pipeline for generally leveraging LLMs in this context and apply it to three different case studies. We find that we are able to safely improve precision, primarily through transforming non-standard covariates, but that LLMs also possess general knowledge that is useful in some contexts.

arXiv commentSubmitted to Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence for Causal Inference in the Behavioral and Social Sciences: Methodological Advances and Applications, a topical issue of the Zeitschrift für Psychologie