Bell Correlations and Selection Bias

Abstract

Methods of selecting samples from larger populations may produce bias, in either direction: inducing correlations between variables independent in the full population, or masking correlations between variables dependent in the full population. Here we propose a surprising application of these familiar ideas. We argue that they are relevant to puzzling correlations uncovered in quantum theory by John Stewart Bell (Bell 1964). In the light of Bell's work and subsequent experiments it is widely believed that the quantum world is 'nonlocal', in apparent tension with relativity. Many hold that the only alternative is to abandon 'realism', the view that there is an objective world independent of measurement. We propose instead that Bell's correlations are selection artefacts, in tension neither with relativity nor realism. In standard two-particle Bell experiments the relevant selection is a preselection, achieved by the preparation of the initial state. Again, selection bias via preselection is familiar elsewhere in science, but it doesn't seem to have been noticed that it is applicable in this case.

27 pages, 13 figures; this version revises and clarifies the argument in several places, and adds a new Appendix. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:2602.16985