Inference in Tightly Identified and Large-Scale Sign-Restricted SVARs

Abstract

We propose a new approach to inference in tightly identified and large-scale structural vector autoregressions based on a reparameterization that enables imposing identifying inequality restrictions through continuously differentiable mappings. Permitted inequality restrictions include shape and ranking restrictions as well as bounds on economically relevant elasticities, and the approach is also able to accommodate zero restrictions in a straightforward manner. We implement a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm and show how the posterior density can be rapidly evaluated under the reparameterization, thus facilitating inference in high-dimensional settings. Two empirical applications demonstrate that our approach tends to result in lower serial dependence in Markov chains, larger effective sample sizes and reduced computation time relative to existing methods.

arXiv comment39 pages, 11 figures. Updated introduction. Updated empirical section with re-run estimation results. Replaced ESS graphs with tables. Updated restriction on the response of employment to labor supply shock in the large model