Calibration Collapse Under Sycophancy Fine-Tuning: How Reward Hacking Breaks Uncertainty Quantification in LLMs

Abstract

Modern large language models (LLMs) are increasingly fine-tuned via reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) or related reward optimisation schemes. While such procedures improve perceived helpfulness, we investigate whether sycophantic reward signals degrade calibration -- a property essential for reliable uncertainty quantification. We fine-tune Qwen3-8B under three regimes: no fine-tuning (base), neutral supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on TriviaQA, and sycophancy-inducing Group Relative Policy Optimisation (GRPO) that rewards agreement with planted wrong answers. Evaluating on $1,000$ MMLU items across five subject domains with bootstrap confidence intervals and permutation testing, we find that \textbf{sycophantic GRPO produces consistent directional calibration degradation} -- ECE rises by $+0.006$ relative to the base model and MCE increases by $+0.010$ relative to neutral SFT -- though the effect does not reach statistical significance ($p=0.41$) at this training budget. Post-hoc matrix scaling applied to all three models reduces ECE by $40$--$64\%$ and improves accuracy by $1.5$--$3.0$ percentage points. However, the sycophantic model retains the highest post-scaling ECE relative to the neutral SFT control ($0.042$ vs.\ $0.037$), suggesting that reward-induced miscalibration leaves a structured residual even after affine correction. These findings establish a methodology for evaluating the calibration impact of reward hacking and motivate calibration-aware training objectives.

Accepted at the AISTATS 2026 Workshop on Towards Trustworthy Predictions: Theory and Applications of Calibration for Modern AI. 14 Pages