Socio-demographic inequalities in the maximum human lifespan: evidence from Belgium and the Netherlands

Abstract

The existence of an upper limit to the human lifespan has been widely debated, with studies offering both supporting and opposing evidence. Existing studies typically treat this limit, if it exists, as a population-wide constant, overlooking potential heterogeneity across individuals. Using unique individual-level death and population records for all individuals aged 90 and older in Belgium and the Netherlands between 1995 and 2022, we use extreme value theory to estimate the upper endpoint of the lifespan distribution, conditional on survival beyond a high threshold age. We find that this endpoint is finite in both countries, but that it is not well described by a single population-wide value: differences in sex, household type, civil status, and origin translate into differences of several years in the estimated upper endpoint. We conclude that socio-demographic inequality persists even at the most advanced ages.