Machine learning cannot decarbonise the subsurface until it can be audited

Abstract

Geological CO2 storage, geothermal energy and underground hydrogen storage depend on irreversible or high-cost decisions made with sparse data and incomplete physical understanding. Machine learning (ML) increasingly informs these decisions, yet methods are usually judged on predictive accuracy rather than on whether their outputs can be trusted, traced and acted upon. We argue that subsurface ML should be designed as decision infrastructure with shared systems that carry calibrated uncertainty and provenance from observation to operating decision. We propose a decision-readiness checklist, an audit-trail workflow for monitoring updates, and benchmark designs that score models by the decisions they support. We identify validation needs shared across the three technologies, and the data-access and governance steps needed for ML to support regulatory and investment decisions.

arXiv comment17 pages, 2 figures, 4 tables, 2 boxes. Substantially revised Perspective with a new title and abstract, revised argument, vector figures and updated references