Equivalence and Divergence of Bayesian Log-Odds and Dempster's Combination Rule for 2D Occupancy Grids

Abstract

We introduce a pignistic-transform-based methodology for fair comparison of Bayesian log-odds and Dempster's combination rule in occupancy grid mapping, matching per-observation decision probabilities to isolate the fusion rule from sensor parameterization. Under BetP matching across simulation, two real lidar datasets, and downstream path planning, Bayesian fusion is consistently favored (15/15 directional consistency, p = 3.1e-5) with small absolute differences (0.001-0.022). Under normalized plausibility matching, the direction reverses, confirming the result is matching-criterion-specific. The methodology is reusable for any future Bayesian/belief function comparison.

29 pages, 6 figures, 6 tables. Includes complete proofs, ablation studies, and supplementary statistical analysis