Native Extrapolation Awareness in Flow-Based Conditional Generation
arXiv:2602.13061
The paper proposes Diverging Flows, a method that augments flow-based conditional generative models with built‑in detection of off‑manifold (extrapolation) inputs, improving safety without hurting prediction quality.
Abstract
The ability of Flow Matching (FM) to model complex conditional distributions has established it as the state-of-the-art for prediction tasks (e.g., robotics, weather forecasting). However, deployment in safety-critical settings is hindered by a critical extrapolation hazard: driven by smoothness biases, flow models yield plausible outputs even for off-manifold conditions, resulting in silent failures indistinguishable from valid predictions. In this work, we introduce Diverging Flows, a novel approach that enables a single model to simultaneously perform conditional generation and native extrapolation detection by structurally enforcing inefficient transport for off-manifold inputs. We evaluate our method on synthetic manifolds, cross-domain style transfer, and weather temperature forecasting, demonstrating that it achieves effective detection of extrapolations without compromising predictive fidelity or inference latency. These results establish Diverging Flows as a robust solution for trustworthy flow models, paving the way for reliable deployment in domains such as medicine, robotics, and climate science.
30 pages, 10 figures, 2 algorithms, 13 tables