Deterministic and stochastic infection dynamics in a population subject to stress

Abstract

Physiological stress fundamentally alters disease susceptibility in aquatic environments. In this paper, we develop a stress-structured epidemiological model where host vulnerability is dynamically driven by water quality. Analytically, we establish that the system exhibits a classic forward bifurcation at ${\mathcal{R}}_0=1$, confirming that the basic reproduction number remains a valid threshold for eradication. However, stochastic analysis reveals a critical asymmetry not captured by deterministic thresholds. We show that while ${\mathcal{R}}_0$ predicts stability, the probability of an outbreak depends on the initial physiological state. Introducing infection into a stressed sub-population leads to immediate rapid growth of the disease, whereas introduction into the normal class faces a stochastic barrier that significantly delays the epidemic peak.