Detecting absence: A dedicated prediction-error signal emerging in the auditory thalamus
arXiv:2511.21605
Abstract
How does the brain know what is out there and what is not? Living organisms cannot rely solely on sensory signals for perception because they are noisy and ambiguous. To form stable percepts, the brain exploits its prior knowledge or beliefs. Current theories explain how perceptual beliefs on the features of the stimuli (e.g., pitch or motion velocity) are updated by feature prediction errors: the mismatch between expected and observed values. How the brain updates beliefs about a stimulus' presence or absence is, however, unclear. We propose that the detection of absence relies on a distinct form of prediction error, absence prediction error, dedicated to the update of beliefs on stimulus occurrence. We tested this hypothesis in the human auditory pathway with fMRI by measuring BOLD responses to absence of stimuli for which the participants held different levels of expectations. Comparing more and less expected responses to absence, we showed that absence prediction error is represented in the auditory thalamus and cortex. Moreover, while feature prediction error is encoded in the auditory midbrain, absence prediction error was not, implying that absence is processed by a different circuit. These results identify the neural mechanism for the detection of sensory absence. These mechanisms may be disrupted in conditions like psychosis, where the detection of absence is impaired.