Modelling Access to Violence Against Women Support Centres in Apulia Using PC-Priors for CAR-Based Spatio-Temporal Models

Abstract

This study investigates the determinants of formal reporting to law enforcement among victims undertaking a pathway out of violence in Anti-Violence Centers (AVCs) of the Apulia region (Southern Italy). Micro-level data are obtained by integrating the official survey on AVCs conducted by the Italian National Institute of Statistics with the regional administrative monitoring on their service users. We employ a Bayesian multilevel logistic regression model with municipality-level random effects to explore individual and contextual factors impacting on the reporting outcome while accounting for the hierarchical data structure. At individual level, the analysis reveals significant differences in formal reporting depending on the relationship with the perpetrator, the nature and severity of violence, the presence of minor children and age. Among the contextual variables, the study highlights the role of specific AVC service provison, of territorial anti-violence networks as well as geographical disparities among provinces and major municipalities. This work adds on the value of integrating multiple data sources for an effective characterization and understanding of the complex and delicate dynamics of formal reporting to police by women victims of violence and informs evidence-based policies to concretely strengthen targeted anti-violence interventions at individual and territorial levels.ling in capturing reporting dynamics and informing policy interventions.