Pólya urn model for analysis of football passes

Abstract

This study analyzes pass networks in football (soccer) using a stochastic model known as the Pólya urn. By focusing on preferential selection, it theoretically demonstrates that the time evolution of networks can be characterized by a single parameter. Building on this result, a data analysis method is proposed and applied to a large-scale public dataset of professional football matches. The statistical properties of the preferential-selection parameter are examined, demonstrating its correlation with pass accuracy and with mean pass difficulty. This method is applicable to various evolving networks.

13 pages, 13 figures (Main Text: 6 pages, 7 figures; Supplemental Material: 7 pages, 6 figures)