When Clear Skies Cloud Trust: Environmental Cues and the Paradox of Confidence in Government

Abstract

Government trust, as a core concept in political economy and public policy research, serves as a fundamental cornerstone of democratic legitimacy and state capacity. This paper examines how environmental conditions, particularly sunlight efficiency, influence reported government trust through both affective and cognitive mechanisms. Leveraging World Values Survey Wave 7 data merged with NASA POWER high-frequency weather data, we propose and validate a novel ``salience and attribution'' mechanism: clearer skies may paradoxically reduce government trust by heightening environmental awareness and triggering negative attributions. We further identify potential mediating pathways, including subjective well-being, political interest, political discussion, and health perception, and demonstrate that environmental conditions introduce measurement error in survey-based trust indicators. Our findings provide theoretical contributions to environmental psychology, behavioral political economy, and survey methodology, and yield practical implications for governance, policy design, and survey

Realized that parts of the analysis substantially overlap with our ongoing follow-up project. We prefer to withdraw this version and will submit a substantially revised and extended version later