Forecasting Generative Amplification

Abstract

Generative networks are perfect tools to enhance the speed and precision of LHC simulations. Especially when generating events beyond the size of the training dataset, it is important to understand their statistical precision. We present two complementary methods to estimate the amplification factor without large holdout datasets. Averaging amplification uses Bayesian networks or ensembling to estimate amplification from the precision of integrals over given phase-space volumes. Differential amplification uses hypothesis testing to quantify amplification without any resolution loss. Applied to state-of-the-art event generators, both methods indicate that amplification is already possible in specific regions of phase space.

23 pages, 15 figures. v2: added link to github repo, extended acknowledgements. v3: updated conventions and refined text, now 25 pages; v4: SciPost accepted version, added 1 table, now 27 pages