Approximating Pandora's Knapsack via Simple Policies
arXiv:2509.05956
Abstract
We introduce Pandora's Knapsack: a hybrid between the classic stochastic knapsack problem [Dean et al., 2008] and Pandora's box [Weitzman, 1979]. As in stochastic knapsack, items have sizes drawn from known distributions, and items that fit within a knapsack contribute to the total value. As in Pandora, every item comes in a box that costs to open. What distinguishes our problem is that the size is revealed only after opening the box and paying the cost. We study the power of simple decision-making policies to approximate Pandora's Knapsack, along two complexity axes: (i)~knowledge of size distributions, and (ii)~adaptivity. We show that adding costs to stochastic knapsack completely changes the algorithmic landscape, and policies must now be complex along both axes to be approximately-optimal. We complement these impossibilities by showing that with full distributional information and slightly more adaptivity---allowing adaptive skipping of items---a constant approximation can be recovered. Our analysis reveals an economic quantity, namely ROI (return-on-investment, defined as the jobs' minimum utility over cost), which smoothly characterizes the performance of simple policies. Across a hierarchy of increasingly adaptive policies, we establish near-tight adaptivity gaps all governed by ROI. To demonstrate the importance of the ROI parameter in characterizing simple policies, we revisit Pandora's Box, and show that return-on-investment exactly captures the adaptivity gap in this classic problem as well. As a corollary, we get that simple policies are approximately-optimal provided the ROI is sufficiently large.