On the analysis of eruptive events with non-radial evolution

Abstract

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are major drivers of space weather disturbances, and their deflection from the radial direction critically affects their potential impact on Earth. While the influence of the surrounding magnetic field in guiding CME trajectories is well established, accurately predicting non-radial propagation remains a challenge. In this work, we introduce and compare recently developed techniques for analyzing the early deflection of eruptive events. We revisit a largely deflected prominence-CME event of 2010 December 16 using an improved tracking framework and a new application of the topological path method. Our results suggest the deflection of the eruption is dominated by the channeling of the magnetic field lines. This study offers new physical insight into CME guidance mechanisms and validates the predictive capability of the topological path, highlighting its potential as a diagnostic tool for estimating the propagation direction of strongly deflected events.

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